Director CSSPR, Dr. Rabia Akhtar wrote a piece for the Stimson Center’s South Asian Voices. Titled “The Future of the Indo-Pak Nuclear Rivalry”, the article looked at the future of this dyadic relation by assessing the Pulwama-Balakot Crisis of 2019. While weighing in on the evolving deterrence and escalation dynamics on the Subcontinent, Dr. Akhtar outlined and analyzed the shifts in the nature of the insurgency in Kashmir, and Pakistan’s capabilities and resolve. A higher degree of resolve from both sides, she argued, could have a stabilizing effect in any future crisis, and strengthen deterrence. On Kashmir, she contended that the increased indigenization of the insurgency will complicate India’s responses to another subconventional event, going forward.
Some quotes from the piece
“The symbolic and strategic Kashmir are heading for a clash that is likely to shape the Indo-Pak nuclear rivalry if these dynamics are not understood.”
“The indigenization of the Kashmiris’ struggle marked by rising anger and activity against Indian security forces could complicate Indian attempts to point the finger at Pakistan in order to justify escalation.”
The next crisis would be determined by how both states are able to strategically manipulate the risk of nuclear war by arranging threats and exhibiting greater levels of resolve, which would clearly determine the outcome of the crisis.
Read the full article here